Table 1 Overview of scenario development

Economy

Economic growth follows the baseline long-term GDP projection from the OECD. Scenario 5 tests the sensitivity of growth on metal demand

Technology

A constant technology A-matrix is assumed

Scenario 4 tests the sensitivity of primary copper-intensity of the economy on cobalt supply. Less copper mining could mean less cobalt extracted

Trade

A constant trade pattern is assumed

Mining risk

Mining risk is region- and mine type-specific

Scenario 2 tests the sensitivity of mining risk on metal extraction, by setting it equal for all regions and all mines

Scenario 3 assumes a drop-out of Africa in metal supply because of instability in the Republic Democratic of the Congo, which supplies a significant share of the studied metals

Cobalt intensity

Cobalt intensity of manufactured products remains the same as of 2007

Mining

Constant regional and mine type—specific ore grades are assumed and correspond to deposit-wide average for each mine type in each region

Mining capacity is increased endogenously

Cut-off grade

Cut-off grade, the minimum grade at which the metal can be economically extracted, is an important parameter for the mining industry and gives the amount of metal that can be extracted from the known reserves. Therefore, cut-off grade determines new refining capacity (optimized for the given cut-off grade) and regional distribution of extractable resources, which should be included into the model as capacity is bound to a given concentration of metal in ore and global mining risk is bound to the new distribution of extractable resources. The model, however, consider that each region have a constant ore grade for their resources, since all identified deposits (under extraction or not) are aggregated to model one mine at the regional level. It means that marginal mining capacity and production is bringing in line at regional average ore grade