Economy-wide impact of TPP: new challenges to China

Sikdar, Chandrima; Mukhopadhyay, Kakali

doi:10.1186/s40008-017-0082-y

Journal of Economic Structures

The Official Journal of the Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS)

Table 3 Welfare results for TPP members under different trade integration scenarios (US $million).

From: Economy-wide impact of TPP: new challenges to China

Trade integration scenarios	Liberalization as per tariff commitments of 2020				Liberalization as per tariff commitments of 2046
TPP countries	Allocative efficiency	TOT	Endowment	Total	Allocative efficiency	TOT	Endowment	Total
Developing countries
With the USA	2682.6	−2967	4075.7	3791.3	44.5	−99.8	28.05	−27.2
Without USA	1445	247.6	2901	4593	43.1	−96.1	30.6	−22.4
Brunei Darussalam
With the USA	49.5	0.023	13.1	63	−0.28	3.2	0.06	3
Without USA	44.6	−2.2	11.9	54.3	−0.28	3.1	0.06	2.9
Chile
With the USA	51.2	379	157	587	9.3	−2.3	4	11.01
Without USA	75.2	613	286	974	9.3	−2.8	4.1	10.6
Malaysia
With the USA	609	−1041	1267	835	0.50	−48.6	12.2	−35.9
Without USA	518	−876	1076	718	0.24	−47.7	12.8	−34.7
Mexico
With the USA	−308	−5133	−1038	−6479	29.3	−7.99	−4.9	16.4
Without USA	223	−516	320	387	27.5	−5.6	−4.3	17.6
Peru
With the USA	−0.14	−116	6.59	−110	−0.16	14.3	3.59	17.7
Without USA	2.14	−47.2	4.76	−40.3	−0.16	13.8	3.44	17.1
Vietnam
With the USA	2281	2944	3670	8895	5.85	−58.4	13.1	−39.5
Without USA	582	716	1202	2500	6.5	−57	14.5	−35.6
Developed countries
With the USA	5901.6	9982	0	15,883.6	−56.8	587.7	0	530.9
Without USA	3415.5	7529	0	10,675	−99.7	889	0	789
Australia
With the USA	494	759	0	1253	374	2468	0	2842
Without USA	562	1310	0	1872	359	2380	0	2739
Canada
With the USA	1234	−198	0	1036	4.61	−25.9	0	−21.3
Without USA	659	2135	0	2794	5.9	−11.8	0	−5.9
Japan
With the USA	4206	856	0	5062	−460	−1397	0	−1857
Without USA	2046	1958	0	4004	−461	−1375	0	−1836
New Zealand
With the USA	87.3	590	0	677	−1.6	−74.4	0	−76
Without USA	96.3	676	0	772	−1.3	−68.2	0	−69.5
Singapore
With the USA	51.3	1198	0	1249	−2.45	−37	0	−39.5
Without USA	52.2	1180	0	1232	−2.4	−36	0	−38.6
USA
With the USA	−171	6777	0	6606	28.6	−346	0	−317.4
Without USA	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–

Trade integration scenarios	Input augmenting technical change (10%) in developing countries				Reduction in trade cost (5%) in developing countries
TPP countries	Allocative efficiency	TOT	Endowment	Total	Allocative efficiency	TOT	Endowment	Total
Developing countries
With the USA	4.98	1.2	7.53	13.7	53.9	193.3	139.5	386.6
Without USA	4.9	−1.1	7.6	11.4	19.3	18.7	43.01	81.04
Brunei Darussalam
With the USA	0.083	0.02	0.02	0.126	0.34	1.83	0.16	2.33
Without USA	0.014	0.03	0.02	0.19	0.29	1.86	0.14	2.3
Chile
With the USA	0.19	−0.11	0.15	0.23	3.5	10.9	7.12	21.5
Without USA	0.18	−0.12	0.4	0.2	2.4	9.2	4.53	16.1
Malaysia
With the USA	2.78	−0.22	4.06	6.6	4.58	13.6	11.6	29.8
Without USA	3.02	−0.13	4.3	7.2	3.6	10.7	8.8	23
Mexico
With the USA	0.007	−0.07	.096	0.03	28.6	138	91.9	258.5
Without USA	0.001	0.05	0.13	0.18	5.9	13.9	11.2	31
Peru
With the USA	0.032	−0.03	0.38	1.37	0.87	3.53	5.5	9.87
Without USA	0.014	0.012	0.15	0.18	0.56	3.19	3.2	6.9
Vietnam
With the USA	1.89	1.61	2.83	6.3	16	25.4	23.2	64.6
Without USA	1.82	1.55	2.71	6.1	9.3	14.6	13.9	37.8

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