The Official Journal of the Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS)
Table 4 Impact on various economic variables in Scenario 2 and Scenario 3.
Economic variables | Scenario 2: Reduction of tariff by the other TPP members | Scenario 3: Reduction of tariff by TPP-ASEAN member | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brunei | Malaysia | Singapore | Vietnam | Brunei | Malaysia | Singapore | Vietnam | |||||||||
With USA | Without USA | With USA | Without USA | With USA | Without USA | With USA | Without USA | With USA | Without USA | With USA | Without USA | With USA | Without USA | With USA | Without USA | |
1. Total Output growth (in %) | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 5.8 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 13.9 | 11.6 |
2. Total Export growth (in %) | 0.2 | 0.1 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 3.6 | 2.5 | −2.0 | −1.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 4.8 | 2.9 |
3. Total Import growth (in %) | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | −2.9 | −0.8 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 0.9 | −2.8 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 8.2 | 7.2 |
4. Welfare change (in million $) | 1.8 | 1.4 | 693.0 | 395.0 | 82.1 | 74.8 | 5927.1 | 1209.1 | 33.9 | 19.9 | 360.0 | 280.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 135.0 | 111.7 |
5. Labour income growth (in %) | ||||||||||||||||
a. Unskilled labour | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 10.6 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
b. Skilled labour | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 11.0 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
6. Household income growth (in %) | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 10.1 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 |