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Journal of Economic Structures

The Official Journal of the Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS)

Table 10 Results of the simulations (percentage deviation from base-year value)

From: Potential roles of export orientation of Cambodia’s agriculture and agro-industry: an application of CGE analysis

 

Closure 1

Closure 2

Closure 1

Closure 2

Closure 1

Closure 2

Demand shock

Demand shock

Productivity

Productivity

Demand and productivity

1A

1B

1A

1B

2A

2B

2A

2B

3

3

Macroeffects

 Real GDP (market price)

0.3

0.0

0.8

0.6

2.1

2.6

1.4

2.2

1.8

1.6

 Investment

1.0

0.4

1.0

0.6

− 1.5

− 1.1

− 1.2

− 0.9

− 1.7

− 1.3

 Public consumption

− 0.3

− 0.2

− 0.2

− 0.2

5.8

0.6

5.1

0.2

1.4

0.5

 Government income

0.9

0.0

1.1

0.4

6.6

4.0

5.1

3.1

3.8

3.5

 Government savings

10.8

3.2

10.6

5.0

− 6.2

− 5.7

2.1

2.9

− 11.3

− 4.7

 Private consumption

0.1

0.0

0.7

0.6

2.8

2.9

2.2

2.6

2.2

1.9

 Household income

0.1

0.0

0.7

0.6

2.5

2.8

2.0

2.5

1.9

1.7

 Household savings

0.1

0.0

0.6

0.5

2.8

3.4

2.1

2.9

2.0

2.2

 Export

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

6.8

1.7

5.2

0.8

0.3

0.3

 Import

0.4

0.1

0.6

0.4

3.0

0.6

2.3

0.2

− 0.7

− 0.5

 Consumption price index

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.2

− 8.6

− 5.6

− 6.6

− 4.4

− 6.2

− 4.9

 Aggregate output

0.0

0.0

0.4

0.2

5.4

2.3

4.0

1.5

2.2

1.1

 Value added

  

0.3

0.3

5.0

2.4

3.7

1.6

  

 Composite quantity demand

0.1

0.0

0.5

0.3

4.2

1.8

3.1

1.2

1.7

0.8

 Domestic demand for local commodities

− 0.1

− 0.1

0.5

0.3

4.8

2.5

3.5

1.7

3.0

1.5

 Intermediate demand

0.0

0.0

0.4

0.2

5.8

2.1

4.4

1.3

2.0

1.0

 

Demand shock

Demand shock

Productivity

Productivity

Demand and productivity

1A

1B

1A

1B

2A

2B

2A

2B

3

3

Factor effects

 Employment

  Total

–

–

0.6

0.6

–

–

− 2.6

− 1.5

–

− 2.2

  LSK

–

–

0.7

0.7

–

–

− 3.8

− 2.1

–

− 2.9

  MSK

–

–

0.6

0.5

–

–

− 2.0

− 1.2

–

− 1.9

  HSK

–

–

0.4

0.3

–

–

− 0.2

− 0.2

–

− 0.8

 Real wage

  LSK

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.6

1.0

4.8

3.4

1.7

3.5

  MSK

0.1

0.0

0.2

0.2

4.3

3.0

5.6

3.7

2.3

3.7

  HSK

− 0.1

− 0.2

0.2

0.1

8.6

5.3

6.9

4.4

4.0

4.3

 Capital rate of return

0.6

0.2

1.2

0.5

3.3

4.1

2.4

3.6

3.7

3.1

 

Demand shock

Demand shock

Productivity

Productivity

Demand and productivity

1A

1B

1A

1B

2A

2B

2A

2B

3

3

Welfare effects (% of initial income)

 Average

0.1

0.0

0.5

0.4

2.3

2.2

1.8

2.0

1.8

1.5

 RP

0.1

0.0

0.6

0.6

2.5

2.7

2.1

2.4

2.8

1.9

 UP

0.0

− 0.1

0.6

0.5

4.0

3.2

3.2

2.8

3.1

2.3

 UNP

0.1

0.0

0.3

0.3

1.2

1.4

0.9

1.3

0.7

0.8

 RNP

0.1

0.0

0.8

0.7

2.7

3.2

2.2

2.9

2.6

2.1

 PPP

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.2

1.7

1.6

1.3

1.4

1.2

1.1

 PPNP

0.1

0.1

0.4

0.3

1.6

1.3

1.3

1.1

0.4

0.6

Labor income of household

0.1

0.0

0.8

0.7

3.2

2.4

2.7

2.2

2.3

1.4

 RP

0.2

0.1

0.8

0.8

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.9

0.9

 UP

0.1

0.0

0.8

0.7

3.4

2.5

2.9

2.2

2.4

1.5

 UNP

0.1

0.0

0.8

0.7

4.6

3.1

3.7

2.7

2.6

1.9

 RNP

0.1

0.1

0.8

0.8

2.6

2.1

2.3

1.9

2.1

1.2

 PPP

0.1

0.0

0.8

0.6

4.7

3.2

3.8

2.7

2.7

2.0

 PPNP

0.0

− 0.1

0.7

0.6

6.2

4.0

4.9

3.3

3.2

2.6

Savings by household

0.1

0.0

0.6

0.5

2.8

3.4

2.1

2.9

2.0

2.2

 RP

0.2

0.1

0.8

0.8

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.9

0.9

 UP

0.1

0.0

0.8

0.7

3.3

2.4

2.8

2.1

2.3

1.4

 UNP

0.1

0.0

0.6

0.5

2.5

3.2

1.9

2.8

1.9

2.1

 RNP

0.1

0.0

0.7

0.6

2.3

2.4

1.9

2.2

1.9

1.5

 PPP

0.1

0.0

0.6

0.5

2.9

3.3

2.2

2.9

2.0

2.1

 PPNP

0.1

0.0

0.6

0.5

3.1

3.5

2.3

3.0

2.1

2.3

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