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The Official Journal of the Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS)

Table 10 Results of the simulations (percentage deviation from base-year value)

From: Potential roles of export orientation of Cambodia’s agriculture and agro-industry: an application of CGE analysis

  Closure 1 Closure 2 Closure 1 Closure 2 Closure 1 Closure 2
Demand shock Demand shock Productivity Productivity Demand and productivity
1A 1B 1A 1B 2A 2B 2A 2B 3 3
Macroeffects
 Real GDP (market price) 0.3 0.0 0.8 0.6 2.1 2.6 1.4 2.2 1.8 1.6
 Investment 1.0 0.4 1.0 0.6 − 1.5 − 1.1 − 1.2 − 0.9 − 1.7 − 1.3
 Public consumption − 0.3 − 0.2 − 0.2 − 0.2 5.8 0.6 5.1 0.2 1.4 0.5
 Government income 0.9 0.0 1.1 0.4 6.6 4.0 5.1 3.1 3.8 3.5
 Government savings 10.8 3.2 10.6 5.0 − 6.2 − 5.7 2.1 2.9 − 11.3 − 4.7
 Private consumption 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.6 2.8 2.9 2.2 2.6 2.2 1.9
 Household income 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.6 2.5 2.8 2.0 2.5 1.9 1.7
 Household savings 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.5 2.8 3.4 2.1 2.9 2.0 2.2
 Export 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 6.8 1.7 5.2 0.8 0.3 0.3
 Import 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.4 3.0 0.6 2.3 0.2 − 0.7 − 0.5
 Consumption price index 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 − 8.6 − 5.6 − 6.6 − 4.4 − 6.2 − 4.9
 Aggregate output 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 5.4 2.3 4.0 1.5 2.2 1.1
 Value added    0.3 0.3 5.0 2.4 3.7 1.6   
 Composite quantity demand 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.3 4.2 1.8 3.1 1.2 1.7 0.8
 Domestic demand for local commodities − 0.1 − 0.1 0.5 0.3 4.8 2.5 3.5 1.7 3.0 1.5
 Intermediate demand 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 5.8 2.1 4.4 1.3 2.0 1.0
  Demand shock Demand shock Productivity Productivity Demand and productivity
1A 1B 1A 1B 2A 2B 2A 2B 3 3
Factor effects
 Employment
  Total 0.6 0.6 − 2.6 − 1.5 − 2.2
  LSK 0.7 0.7 − 3.8 − 2.1 − 2.9
  MSK 0.6 0.5 − 2.0 − 1.2 − 1.9
  HSK 0.4 0.3 − 0.2 − 0.2 − 0.8
 Real wage
  LSK 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 4.8 3.4 1.7 3.5
  MSK 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 4.3 3.0 5.6 3.7 2.3 3.7
  HSK − 0.1 − 0.2 0.2 0.1 8.6 5.3 6.9 4.4 4.0 4.3
 Capital rate of return 0.6 0.2 1.2 0.5 3.3 4.1 2.4 3.6 3.7 3.1
  Demand shock Demand shock Productivity Productivity Demand and productivity
1A 1B 1A 1B 2A 2B 2A 2B 3 3
Welfare effects (% of initial income)
 Average 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.4 2.3 2.2 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.5
 RP 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.6 2.5 2.7 2.1 2.4 2.8 1.9
 UP 0.0 − 0.1 0.6 0.5 4.0 3.2 3.2 2.8 3.1 2.3
 UNP 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 1.2 1.4 0.9 1.3 0.7 0.8
 RNP 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.7 2.7 3.2 2.2 2.9 2.6 2.1
 PPP 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.1
 PPNP 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.6
Labor income of household 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.7 3.2 2.4 2.7 2.2 2.3 1.4
 RP 0.2 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.9 0.9
 UP 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.7 3.4 2.5 2.9 2.2 2.4 1.5
 UNP 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.7 4.6 3.1 3.7 2.7 2.6 1.9
 RNP 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 2.6 2.1 2.3 1.9 2.1 1.2
 PPP 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.6 4.7 3.2 3.8 2.7 2.7 2.0
 PPNP 0.0 − 0.1 0.7 0.6 6.2 4.0 4.9 3.3 3.2 2.6
Savings by household 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.5 2.8 3.4 2.1 2.9 2.0 2.2
 RP 0.2 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.9 0.9
 UP 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.7 3.3 2.4 2.8 2.1 2.3 1.4
 UNP 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.5 2.5 3.2 1.9 2.8 1.9 2.1
 RNP 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.6 2.3 2.4 1.9 2.2 1.9 1.5
 PPP 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.5 2.9 3.3 2.2 2.9 2.0 2.1
 PPNP 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.5 3.1 3.5 2.3 3.0 2.1 2.3