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The Official Journal of the Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS)

Table 1 Inclan–Tiao test results, break dates and volatilities

From: Structural change and output volatility reduction in OECD countries: evidence of the Second Great Moderation

Break dates

Period

Unconditional volatility (SD × 100)

Conditional volatility (SD × 100)

1972Q3

1962Q2–1972Q2

0.61

0.35

1982Q3

1972Q3–1983Q2

1.53

0.53

2010Q1

1983Q3–2009Q4

1.04 (excluding 2008/09 crisis, volatility: 0,83)

0.36 (excluding 2008/09 crisis, volatility: 0.30)

 

2010Q1–2018Q3

0.40

0.17

  1. Error terms are calculated on the basis of AR(8) process