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The Official Journal of the Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS)

Table 3 Potential employment effects of a decline in UK import demand for final goods from the EU (no-deal Brexit)

From: International trade barriers and regional employment: the case of a no-deal Brexit

Country Affected persons Total Share of affected persons
Direct (1000 pers.) Indirect (1000 pers.) Sum (1000 pers.) Employment (1000 pers.) Direct (%) Indirect (%) Sum (%)
AUS 0.000 0.751 0.751 11,863 0.000 0.006 0.006
AUT 2.773 6.624 9.397 4268 0.065 0.155 0.220
BEL 13.338 14.837 28.175 4547 0.293 0.326 0.620
BGR 2.401 5.857 8.258 3602 0.067 0.163 0.229
BRA 0.000 18.711 18.711 104,029 0.000 0.018 0.018
CAN 0.000 2.298 2.298 18,449 0.000 0.012 0.012
CHE 0.000 3.129 3.129 5084 0.000 0.062 0.062
CHN 0.000 90.862 90.862 858,368 0.000 0.011 0.011
CYP 0.431 1.082 1.513 357 0.121 0.303 0.424
CZE 7.906 17.813 25.719 5111 0.155 0.349 0.503
DEU 63.068 113.281 176.349 42,706 0.148 0.265 0.413
DNK 4.505 5.805 10.310 2765 0.163 0.210 0.373
ESP 23.463 32.456 55.918 17,966 0.131 0.181 0.311
EST 0.411 0.572 0.983 620 0.066 0.092 0.159
FIN 0.726 2.091 2.818 2502 0.029 0.084 0.113
FRA 31.536 49.104 80.640 27,295 0.116 0.180 0.295
GBR 0.000 21.754 21.754 30,726 0.000 0.071 0.071
GRC 1.622 2.378 4.000 3965 0.041 0.060 0.101
HRV 1.848 1.887 3.736 1569 0.118 0.120 0.238
HUN 5.420 10.251 15.671 4235 0.128 0.242 0.370
IDN 0.000 22.484 22.484 168,808 0.000 0.013 0.013
IND 0.000 59.128 59.128 658,776 0.000 0.009 0.009
IRL 26.168 9.356 35.524 1914 1.367 0.489 1.856
ITA 23.917 48.262 72.179 24,371 0.098 0.198 0.296
JPN 0.000 5.112 5.112 61,232 0.000 0.008 0.008
KOR 0.000 3.861 3.861 24,446 0.000 0.016 0.016
LTU 1.148 1.738 2.886 1319 0.087 0.132 0.219
LUX 0.367 0.996 1.364 403 0.091 0.247 0.338
LVA 0.411 1.019 1.430 900 0.046 0.113 0.159
MEX 0.000 2.283 2.283 38,997 0.000 0.006 0.006
MLT 3.296 3.181 6.478 190 1.735 1.674 3.409
NLD 15.484 22.897 38.381 8727 0.177 0.262 0.440
NOR 0.000 1.137 1.137 2747 0.000 0.041 0.041
POL 29.122 49.445 78.567 15,577 0.187 0.317 0.504
PRT 7.133 8.543 15.676 4546 0.157 0.188 0.345
ROU 8.423 14.844 23.267 8805 0.096 0.169 0.264
RUS 0.000 17.501 17.501 74,286 0.000 0.024 0.024
SVK 4.158 7.418 11.577 2227 0.187 0.333 0.520
SVN 0.438 1.490 1.928 941 0.047 0.158 0.205
SWE 4.044 7.045 11.090 4750 0.085 0.148 0.233
TUR 0.000 14.249 14.249 32,326 0.000 0.044 0.044
TWN 0.000 3.998 3.998 20,207 0.000 0.020 0.020
USA 0.000 26.222 26.222 155,769 0.000 0.017 0.017
EU-27 283.556 440.273 723.832 196,178 0.145 0.224 0.367
  1. The table shows estimated direct and indirect output effects of a decline in British final goods imports due to tariffs and non-tariff trade costs after a no-deal Brexit derived from input–output analysis. General-equilibrium effects and other relevant channels such as trade diversion are not included. Source: World Input–Output Database, data for 2014, own calculations