International trade barriers and regional employment: the case of a no-deal Brexit

Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich; Holtemöller, Oliver

doi:10.1186/s40008-021-00241-9

Journal of Economic Structures

The Official Journal of the Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS)

Table 3 Potential employment effects of a decline in UK import demand for final goods from the EU (no-deal Brexit)

From: International trade barriers and regional employment: the case of a no-deal Brexit

Country	Affected persons			Total	Share of affected persons
Country	Direct (1000 pers.)	Indirect (1000 pers.)	Sum (1000 pers.)	Employment (1000 pers.)	Direct (%)	Indirect (%)	Sum (%)
AUS	0.000	0.751	0.751	11,863	0.000	0.006	0.006
AUT	2.773	6.624	9.397	4268	0.065	0.155	0.220
BEL	13.338	14.837	28.175	4547	0.293	0.326	0.620
BGR	2.401	5.857	8.258	3602	0.067	0.163	0.229
BRA	0.000	18.711	18.711	104,029	0.000	0.018	0.018
CAN	0.000	2.298	2.298	18,449	0.000	0.012	0.012
CHE	0.000	3.129	3.129	5084	0.000	0.062	0.062
CHN	0.000	90.862	90.862	858,368	0.000	0.011	0.011
CYP	0.431	1.082	1.513	357	0.121	0.303	0.424
CZE	7.906	17.813	25.719	5111	0.155	0.349	0.503
DEU	63.068	113.281	176.349	42,706	0.148	0.265	0.413
DNK	4.505	5.805	10.310	2765	0.163	0.210	0.373
ESP	23.463	32.456	55.918	17,966	0.131	0.181	0.311
EST	0.411	0.572	0.983	620	0.066	0.092	0.159
FIN	0.726	2.091	2.818	2502	0.029	0.084	0.113
FRA	31.536	49.104	80.640	27,295	0.116	0.180	0.295
GBR	0.000	21.754	21.754	30,726	0.000	0.071	0.071
GRC	1.622	2.378	4.000	3965	0.041	0.060	0.101
HRV	1.848	1.887	3.736	1569	0.118	0.120	0.238
HUN	5.420	10.251	15.671	4235	0.128	0.242	0.370
IDN	0.000	22.484	22.484	168,808	0.000	0.013	0.013
IND	0.000	59.128	59.128	658,776	0.000	0.009	0.009
IRL	26.168	9.356	35.524	1914	1.367	0.489	1.856
ITA	23.917	48.262	72.179	24,371	0.098	0.198	0.296
JPN	0.000	5.112	5.112	61,232	0.000	0.008	0.008
KOR	0.000	3.861	3.861	24,446	0.000	0.016	0.016
LTU	1.148	1.738	2.886	1319	0.087	0.132	0.219
LUX	0.367	0.996	1.364	403	0.091	0.247	0.338
LVA	0.411	1.019	1.430	900	0.046	0.113	0.159
MEX	0.000	2.283	2.283	38,997	0.000	0.006	0.006
MLT	3.296	3.181	6.478	190	1.735	1.674	3.409
NLD	15.484	22.897	38.381	8727	0.177	0.262	0.440
NOR	0.000	1.137	1.137	2747	0.000	0.041	0.041
POL	29.122	49.445	78.567	15,577	0.187	0.317	0.504
PRT	7.133	8.543	15.676	4546	0.157	0.188	0.345
ROU	8.423	14.844	23.267	8805	0.096	0.169	0.264
RUS	0.000	17.501	17.501	74,286	0.000	0.024	0.024
SVK	4.158	7.418	11.577	2227	0.187	0.333	0.520
SVN	0.438	1.490	1.928	941	0.047	0.158	0.205
SWE	4.044	7.045	11.090	4750	0.085	0.148	0.233
TUR	0.000	14.249	14.249	32,326	0.000	0.044	0.044
TWN	0.000	3.998	3.998	20,207	0.000	0.020	0.020
USA	0.000	26.222	26.222	155,769	0.000	0.017	0.017
EU-27	283.556	440.273	723.832	196,178	0.145	0.224	0.367

The table shows estimated direct and indirect output effects of a decline in British final goods imports due to tariffs and non-tariff trade costs after a no-deal Brexit derived from input–output analysis. General-equilibrium effects and other relevant channels such as trade diversion are not included. Source: World Input–Output Database, data for 2014, own calculations

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