Financial intermediaries and speculation in the foreign exchange market: the role of monetary policy in Iran’s economy

Journal of Economic Structures

The Official Journal of the Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS)

Table 4 The estimation results of equation CPI

Variables	Coefficient		Std. error		Prob.
Regimes	Regime (0)	Regime (1)	Regime (0)	Regime (1)	Regime (0)	Regime (1)
Constant	0.266883	0.240587	0.02491	0.0005342	0.000	0.000
STO	− 0.010099	− 0.002093	0.0395	0.0004804	0.002	0.000
DEP	− 0.208219	− 0.199170	0.04136	0.02992	0.000	0.000
EX	0.0583599	0.0016899	0.153	0.001366	0.000	0.126
AR-1	0.414919	− 0.335574	0.05965	0.06489	0.000	0.000
Sigma	0.0639613	0.00478447	0.0118	0.000972
M	0.218007		0.02932		0.000
GDP	− 2.598565		0.03509		0.000
OIL	− 0.0255979		0.001816		0.000
Transition matrix and the average of persistence years			P₀₀: 0.71714		P₁₀: 0.33843
Transition matrix and the average of persistence years			P₀₁: 0.28286		P₁₁: 0.66157

The average duration of each very high CPI was 3 years and high CPI 3 years. 50% of the interval, CPI was in high regime and 50% in very high one
Note: AR-1 shows the lag of CPI. Sigma is the variance or the fluctuations of CPI. M, GDP, and OIL are orderly the coin and bills in people’s hands, gross domestic product, and oil exports