Physical climate change and the sovereign risk of emerging economies

Journal of Economic Structures

The Official Journal of the Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS)

Table 13 Robustness tests: changing dependent variable

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
	\(\Delta\)EMBI spread	\(\Delta\)EMBI spread	\(\Delta\)EMBI spread	\(\Delta\)CDS Spread	\(\Delta\)CDS Spread
DeviationAdjustedTempAnomaly	3.667* (1.837)			8.276 (5.990)
HistoricalTempAnomaly		− 1.649 (2.248)	4.776** (2.287)		11.17** (4.513)
VeryColdCountry \(\times\) HistoricalTempAnomaly		1.354 (2.182)
ColdCountry (base category) \(\times\) HistoricalTempAnomaly		0 (0)
MildCountry \(\times\) HistoricalTempAnomaly		3.301 (2.208)
WarmCountry \(\times\) HistoricalTempAnomaly		1.766 (2.580)
VeryWarmCountry \(\times\) HistoricalTempAnomaly		11.27* (5.734)
RuleOfLaw			− 0.0610 (0.146)		− 0.0811 (0.217)
HistoricalTempAnomaly \(\times\) RuleOfLaw			− 0.0940*** (0.0350)		− 0.187** (0.0744)
Precipitation	− 14.57* (8.247)	− 13.10 (8.715)	− 15.86* (8.030)	19.17 (18.99)	15.03 (15.71)
Observations	9610	9610	9491	4277	4277
R-squared	0.463	0.464	0.456	0.349	0.351
Number of countries	54	54	54	37	37
Country FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Region\(\times\) MonthYear FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

This table shows robustness checks for the deviation-adjusted temperature variable (Table 6, column (6)), the bin-regression analyzing the warmness of countries using 5 \(^{\circ }\)C intervals (Table 7, column (2)) and the interaction with institutional characteristics (rule of law index, Table 9, column (1)). Columns (1–3) use the first difference of the EMBI spread, and columns (4)-(5) the first difference of the CDS spread as a new dependent variable. Standard errors (in parentheses) are clustered at the country level and control for heteroscedasticity and serial correlation, ***, ** and * indicate statistical significance at the 1%, 5% and 10% level, respectively. See Table 18 for variable definitions and sources