Physical climate change and the sovereign risk of emerging economies

Journal of Economic Structures

The Official Journal of the Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS)

Table 4 Descriptive statistics on the connection between temperature, natural disasters, and economic performance

	Full sample mean	Drought	Droughts with reported damage	Wildfire	Heat wave	Cold wave or severe winter
Historical temperature anomaly (in degrees Celsius)	0.842 (16,200)	0.898 (716)	0.946 (505)	0.989 (132)	0.988 (82)	0.0623 (269)

Economic performance	Overall mean	Mean if historical temperature anomaly > 75th percentile	Mean if historical temperature anomaly < 25th percentile
Stock market returns (in percent, 38 Countries)	0.233	− 0.0872	0.412
Quarterly GDP growth (in percent, full sample)	0.981	0.937	1.061
Government primary surplus in % of GDP (42 Countries)	− 0.235	− 0.693	0.400

Mean of HistoricalTempAnomaly is shown for periods with occurring natural disasters in panel countries. Number of observations for each event is shown below in brackets.
Mean of an economic performance variable is shown over all periods, for periods with high temperature anomalies and for periods with low temperature anomalies. HistoricalTempAnomaly is on monthly frequency for stock returns (75th percentile: 1.382 \(^{\circ }\)C; 25th percentile: 0.286 \(^{\circ }\)C), collapsed to quarterly frequency for GDP growth (75th percentile: 1.245 \(^{\circ }\)C; 25th percentile: 0.321 \(^{\circ }\)C), and collapsed to yearly frequency for government surplus (75th percentile: 1.178 \(^{\circ }\)C; 25th percentile: 0.447 \(^{\circ }\)C) to match the respective frequency