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The Official Journal of the Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS)

Table 8 Channels of temperature–sovereign risk connection: economic sector specialization

From: Physical climate change and the sovereign risk of emerging economies

 

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

 

\(\Delta\)EMBI

\(\Delta\)EMBI

\(\Delta\)EMBI

\(\Delta\)EMBI

\(\Delta\)EMBI

\(\Delta\)EMBI

\(\Delta\)EMBI

\(\Delta\)EMBI

HistoricalTempAnomaly

0.0388 (0.0781)

 

− 0.164 (0.104)

 

− 0.203 (0.214)

 

0.00517 (0.0587)

 

DeviationAdjustedTempAnomaly

 

− 0.290 (0.191)

 

− 0.546* (0.310)

 

− 4.67e−05 (0.328)

 

− 0.218* (0.112)

AgricultureToGDP

0.0188 (0.0303)

0.0137 (0.0301)

      

HistoricalTempAnomaly \(\times\) AgricultureToGDP

− 0.00828 (0.00970)

       

DeviationAdjustedTempAnomaly \(\times\) AgricultureToGDP

 

0.00615 (0.0186)

      

ManufacutringToGDP

  

0.0379 (0.0314)

0.0339 (0.0330)

    

HistoricalTempAnomaly \(\times\) ManufacutringToGDP

  

0.00833 (0.00709)

     

DeviationAdjustedTempAnomaly \(\times\) ManufacutringToGDP

   

0.0192 (0.0171)

    

ServicesToGDP

    

− 0.0410** (0.0154)

− 0.0374** (0.0148)

  

HistoricalTempAnomaly \(\times\) ServicesToGDP

    

0.00339 (0.00392)

   

DeviationAdjustedTempAnomaly \(\times\) ServicesToGDP

     

− 0.00443 (0.00614)

  

ResourceRentsToGDP

      

0.0143 (0.0182)

0.0111 (0.0182)

HistoricalTempAnomaly \(\times\) ResourceRentsToGDP

      

− 0.00256 (0.00218)

 

DeviationAdjustedTempAnomaly \(\times\) ResourceRentsToGDP

       

− 0.00138 (0.00742)

Precipitation

0.294

0.111

0.256

0.100

0.296

0.121

0.253

0.0716

 

(0.364)

(0.365)

(0.364)

(0.372)

(0.365)

(0.371)

(0.354)

(0.362)

Observations

9875

9875

9599

9599

9875

9875

9273

9273

R-squared

0.528

0.528

0.530

0.530

0.529

0.529

0.531

0.531

Country FE

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Region\(\times\)MonthYear FE

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

  1. This table shows OLS estimation results of a panel of 54 countries from 1994m1 to 2018m12. \(\Delta\)EMBI are monthly natural log returns of a country’s EMBI index. HistoricalTempAnomaly is the difference between monthly temperature of a country and its 1901–1950 temperature average of the same month. DeviationAdjustedTempAnomaly is the anomaly measure divided by a country’s 1901–1950 average of temperature standard deviation. The GDP share of the agriculture sector (1–2), the manufacturing sector (3–4) the service sector (5–6) and the total share of oil, gas, coal, mineral and forest rents in relation to GDP (ResourceRentsToGDP) are used as interaction variables (7–8). Standard errors (in parentheses) are clustered at the country level and control for heteroscedasticity and serial correlation, ***, ** and * indicate statistical significance at the 1%, 5% and 10% level, respectively. See Table 18 for variable definitions and sources