The relative effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies in promoting Egypt’s output growth: an empirical investigation using an ARDL approach

Journal of Economic Structures

The Official Journal of the Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS)

Table 5 Long run and short run forms: specification 1

Variable	Coefficient	t-statistic	Prob. Value
Long run results: case 2: restricted constant and no trend
Dependent variable: ngdp_g
ngov_cons_g	0.293688*	1.979902	0.0532
bm_g	0.407245***	4.154433	0.0001
nexport_g	0.137902***	3.484824	0.0010
constant	2.017752	0.805266	0.4245
EC = ngdp_g-(0.2937ngov_cons_g* + 0.4072bm_g* + 0.1379nexport_g* + 2.0178)
Short run results (ECM Form): case 2: restricted constant and no trend
Dependent variable: D(ngdp_g)
D(bm_g)	0.070670	0.882189	0.3819
D(bm_g(-1))	− 0.477649***	− 5.776245	0.0000
ecm(-1)	− 0.854291***	− 10.95162	0.0000

Diagnostic tests	Test statistic	Probability
Normality	0.162926	0.922
Heteroscedasticity (Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey)	F-statistic: 2.042	0.077
Heteroscedasticity (Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey)	Obs* R-squared 11.217	0.082
Breusch-Godfrey Serial correlation LM test (2 lags)	F-statistic: 0.5748	0.5666
Breusch-Godfrey Serial correlation LM test (2 lags)	Obs*R-squared: 1.3332	0.5134
Ramsey RESET Test	F-statistic 0.211765	0.6474
CUSUM	stable
CUSUM SQ	stable

(*) and (***) denote the rejection of the null hypothesis at 10% and 1% levels of significance, respectively