Financial intermediaries and speculation in the foreign exchange market: the role of monetary policy in Iran’s economy

Journal of Economic Structures

The Official Journal of the Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS)

Table 5 The estimation results of equation STO

Variables	Coefficient		Std. error			Prob.
Regimes	Regime (0)	Regime (1)	Regime (0)		Regime (1)	Regime (0)	Regime (1)
Constant	0.328315	− 0.24030	0.03915	0.1046		0.000	0.051
DEP	− 1.64952	− 0.80073	0.1463	0.2525		0.000	0.013
EX	0.0617773	− 0.23450	0.01549	0.01154		0.004	0.000
CPI	2.08936	2.53547	0.3485	0.3516		0.000	0.126
AR-1	− 0.800062	− 1.16982	0.07971	0.0734		0.000	0.000
AR-2	0.47467	− 1.29724	0.05302	0.0875		0.000	0.000
AR-3	1.12705	− 0.513673	0.0687	0.07425		0.000	0.000
M	1.55717		0.1446			0.000
GDP	2.96879		0.2759			0.000
RATE	− 0.540297		0.2944			0.104
Sigma	0.0853663		0.01142
Transition matrix and the average of persistence years			P₀₀: 0.82352			P₁₀: 0.27272
Transition matrix and the average of persistence years			P₀₁: 0.17648			P₁₁: 0.72728

The average duration of bull market was 4.25 years and bear 3.67 years. 60.71% of the interval, STO was in regime (0) and 39.29% in regime (1)
AR-1, AR-2, and AR-3 show the lags of stock market. Sigma is the variance or the fluctuations of stock market. M, GDP, and RATE are orderly the coin and bills in people’s hands, gross domestic product, and real interest rate